effects of lowering the voting age to 16

The dominant view in the literature is that 16-year-olds in the United Kingdom are not politically mature enough to vote since they lack political knowledge, political interest and stable political preferences (Chan and Clayton, 2006). Aarts, H., Verplanken, B., & van Knippenbe, A. close. For 2008 only a postelection survey is available (conducted in 2009). Jackman, S., & Spahn, B. Vowles, J., Katz, G., & Stevens, D. (2017). Words: 854 - Pages: 4. Considering that the previous such reform (lowering the voting age to 18) had the opposite consequences (as this chapter explains), finding a way to undo the deleterious consequences of that reform has a high priority in the minds of many, and Votes at 16 might just do the trick. If I recall correctly: An event history analysis of forgetting and recalling past voting behavior. According to the Hill, Pelosi believes high school kids are the most civically engaged and should be allowed to jump into politics while they are still enthusiastic about it. Getting young people voting early makes them voters for life. At the moment, 1.5 million 16 … These same failures were seen Model A of Table 2.1 in the main text, which used the same unbalanced data as are used in Model M. But Model N does show a long-term effect of 6.59 (Row 8), though this is only barely significant at conventional levels. Table. Republican opponents of a policy that would lower the voting age to 16 argue that the move would guarantee more votes for Democrats because younger people … Please enable cookies on your web browser in order to continue. Jennings, W. (2013). This book explores the consequences of lowering the voting age to 16 from a global perspective, bringing together empirical research from countries where at least some 16-year-olds are able to vote. Lowering the voting age to 16 could change the winner in 88 seats, ONS analysis shows. Beck, N., & Katz, J. By shifting the voting age to 16 or 17, the results of each election would become a better representation of the majority of the population. Model M shows no significant effect of eligibility to Vote at 16, neither short-term (Row 7) nor long-term (Row 8). Or might they rather simply vote more-or-less at random, adding to the volatility of election outcomes that has already been growing apace in recent years? Voting correctly. Lowering the voting age to 16 would bring the age of political responsibility more in line with the age of criminal responsibility and the age of informed consent for medical procedures. Two quasi-mechanical forces push in different directions when we consider consequences of lowering the voting age to 16. In M. Bruter & M. Lodge (Eds.). No other country displays what is known in the econometric jargon as a “unit root” for turnout and our measure of Votes at 16 shows no such unit root for any country. Franklin, M., & Hobolt, S. (2011). Predicting behavior from actions in the past: Repeated decision making or a matter of habit? (1998). Bargh, J. Voting at 16: Turnout and the quality of vote choice. Franklin, M., & Mackie, T. (1983). Both coefficients prove significant at p < 0.05. In the past decade-and-a-half, a number of countries have discussed a further reform that would give voting rights to 16-year-olds. "I myself have always been for lowering the voting age to 16," Pelosi said. Not affiliated See our, Read a limited number of articles each month, You consent to the use of cookies and tracking by us and third parties to provide you with personalized ads, Unlimited access to washingtonpost.com on any device, Unlimited access to all Washington Post apps, No on-site advertising or third-party ad tracking. Now, there's a youth-driven push to bring more of them to the ballot box. In 2013 and 2017 there were additional preelection surveys. 2013 and 2017 is taken from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) website. d|part - Think Tank for political participation . The first article, called the Top Ten Reasons for Lowering the Voting Age was written by the National Youth Rights Association. Stata tip 87: Interpretation of interactions in nonlinear models. On the one hand, lowering the voting age would provide votes to young adults still in school and living in their parental homes. Lowering the voting age could improve the voter turnout rates for U.S. elections as well. Why I disagree with lowering the voting age to 16 As a 16 year old themselves, this SpunOut.ie reader thinks the voting age should stay at 18 Written by Anonymous and posted in voices In these uncertain political times, the youth voice has become louder, more engaged, and more active. Dropping the data for these four countries would still leave four South American control countries to match the four South American test countries, reifying the findings described in this note. Powell, G. B., & Whitten, G. D. (1993). Because it is negative, the error correction parameter suggests what is sometimes known as “regression towards the mean”—the tendency of any deviation from long-run equilibrium to be “corrected” (or “decay”) over the passage of time. Survey data for Austrian elections in 2008. (1989). This article examines whether the voting age should be lowered to 16. Share. In addition to those mentioned in Note 1, four countries show a unit root for volatility in both datasets: Chile, Nicaragua, Paraguay, and Venezuela. Lowering the voting age to 16 is something that has already been introduced in Scotland for elections to the Scottish Parliament, and at a UK level the different political parties have mixed positions. Error-correction as a concept and as a method: Time series analysis of policy-opinion responsiveness. By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. Becoming a habitual voter: Inertia, resources, and growth in young adulthood. In Britain, in particular, the issue will not rest, with many claiming that the Brexit referendum could have had a different outcome if 16 and 17 year-olds were able to vote. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32541-1_2, Palgrave Studies in Young People and Politics, Political Science and International Studies, Political Science and International Studies (R0). pp 13-41 | Tyler Okeke, a 19-year-old activist, is among those who champion lowering the voting age from 18 to 16. “Dr. These circumstances should (theory tells us) boost the turnout of those individuals not only at their first election but throughout their ensuing lifetimes. (1995). It held some very strong, solid arguments and reasons for convincing its audience of their claim to lower the voting age to 16. The case for the voting age to be lowered to 16. Britain, Malta, New Zealand and the US have all mooted the topic in recent times. In the 1960s and 1970s there was a debate concerning a possible change in the voting age from 20 or 21 to 18, and most countries concluded that debate by lowering the voting age. Opponents argue that they are not; proponents argue that they are. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., on Thursday said she was “shocked” that lowering the legal voting age to 16 is a “polarizing” subject of debate. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., on Thursday said she was “shocked” that lowering the legal voting age to 16 is a “polarizing” subject of debate. Our politics will affect young people for decades to come. Again we need to be concerned with the possibility of unit roots in our data. 64.227.70.129. The legacy of lethargy: How elections to the European Parliament depress turnout. Freshmen Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., proposed lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 for federal elections. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed her support of lowering the voting age. Top 10 topics for essay. Not logged in As 16-year-olds are still firmly anchored in the structures of their schools and families, educational measures can be used to make them more interested in politics. Coefficients significant at **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1, one-tailed. © 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The main concern with lowering the voting age is whether 17- or even 16-year-olds are old enough to vote responsibly. Currently 14 states and the District of Columbia let teens pre-register to vote at 16, while an additional nine states have opened pre-registration to 17-year-olds. On the other hand, are sixteen-year-olds mature enough to understand the consequences of their party choices? Lowering the voting age to 16 is being discussed in several countries, but how do 16- and 17-year-olds compare to older first-time voters? By lowering the voting age to 16, the U.S. would balance out its system of justice by offering those who could be charged as an adult the opportunity to have a say in … 1 that aims to lower the voting age to 16 ‒ made the comment on Thursday during a Facebook Live conversation with Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., and author Ibram Kendi. These circumstances should (theory tells us) boost the turnout of those individuals not only at their first election but throughout their ensuing … About sharing. The new European data protection law requires us to inform you of the following before you use our website: We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. Turnout and the party system in Canada, 1988–2004. In a new book chapter, Julian Aichholzer and Sylvia Kritzinger answer this question by looking at a decade of empirical evidence from Austria, where voting at 16 was introduced for national elections in 2007. This chapter uses empirical evidence from historic cases in an attempt to evaluate these possibly countervailing effects. For the balanced data, if Paraguay alone is omitted and electoral clarity is dropped from the model then the long-term effect of lowering the voting age rises to 7.1%, still significant at 0.10. Conditional automaticity: Varieties of automatic influence in social perception and cognition. Because of the small N available in only one country and our special interest in the elections of 2013 and 2017 (the only elections for which we have individual-level data relevant to the study of volatility) I pool the pre and postelection data where available. Any argument in favor of lowering the voting age starts with the fact that 16- and 17-year-olds are already seen as adults in several official ways. Dr Jan Eichhorn . lowering of the voting age to 16 for Scottish Parliament and local government elections, including by-elections, and any other poll using the franchise for local government elections in Scotland (for example, elections for membership of a National Park authority). The voting age is currently 18, but many people are starting to think that this might be too old still. Ai, C., & Norton, E. (2003). The debate about lowering the voting age to 16 is not only about enfranchisement, ... We hence consider this to be a hard test for evaluating the effects of voting at 16, and any effects we might find are most likely an underestimation of the likely effects of “real” eligibility. Teens are well-informed today thanks to the internet and those who are 16 or 17 will be affected by an election when they turn the age of majority, yet have … As it was, only two-thirds of 18 to 24 year-olds turned out to vote, and the leave result was … The study’s mobilization scenario shows the concrete effects of lowering the voting age to 16. Pressley ‒ a co-sponsor of a resolution to H.R. The third argument is that Most people are driving at the age of 16 with a learners permit.…. Voting at 16: Turnout and the quality of vote choice image copyright Getty Images. A new study shows constituencies where young people aged 16 and 17 outnumber the sitting MP’s majority This is a preview of subscription content, The main text refers to error correction models (ECMs) which are presented here. Lowering The Voting Age For Local Elections In Takoma Park and Hyattsville, MD: A Case Study A case study from Generation Citizen analyzes the positive effects of lowering the voting age in two Maryland towns. New policy #7 - Lower the Voting Age to 16. In J. Uleman & J. Bargh (Eds.). The debate over lowering the voting age is not unique to Australia. Forbidding 16-year-olds from voting is consistent with many other laws that govern their behavior until they turn 18. Electoral competitiveness and turnout in British elections, 1964–2010. Lau, R., & Redlawsk, D. (1997). Johnston, R., Matthews, S., & Bittner, A. Essay on kidnapping of child. Young voter engagement has not been over 50% during an election since 1964 in the United States. An error correction parameter of –0.85 in Model N suggests that 85% of any short-term effect decays within a single time period (approximately four years in our data, the average period between elections). Gumley conference debating lowering the UK voting age to 16 240 sixth form students from 4 different schools all discussing whether 16-year olds should be allowed to vote. How lowering the voting age to 16 can be an opportunity to improve youth political engagement . Election coverage was as follows: Argentina 1983–2017 (19 elections); Austria 1975–2017 (13); Bolivia 1979–2014 (10); Brazil 1978–2018 (11); Chile 1989–2017 (8); Colombia 1974–2018 (13); Ecuador 1984–2017 (13); Nicaragua 1984–2016 (7); Paraguay 1973–2018 (11); Uruguay 1984–2014 (7); and Venezuela 1973–2015 (10). Reason #4: lowering the voting age to 16 will strengthen civics education Strong civics education and a lower voting age would mutually reinforce each other to increase civic engagement. Error correction effects on aggregate-level turnout in South-American countries and Austria of changes in vote-eligibility, controlling for other predictors of turnout, (7) ∆Eligibility to Vote at 16 (0,1 = yes), +1—Proportion gap between largest party size and 50% of seats, ++1—Proportion gap in seats between the top 2 parties, Note Fixed-effects regression. 307–313)—certainly the case for turnout. This service is more advanced with JavaScript available, Lowering the Voting Age to 16 In 1971, the U.S. already lowered the voting age from 21 to 18 and the latter is also the age citizens in most countries vote. Lessons learned from the Scottish Independence Referendum. 2. ‘Squad’ member Pressley says she’s ‘shocked’ that lowering voting age to 16 is polarizing issue. Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips. Published 7 November 2017. [ 18 ] A person who votes in one election has a 13% greater probability of voting in a future election. What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. Kendi,… Plutzer, E. (2002). Part of Springer Nature. 12.10.2014 . By clicking “I agree” below, you consent to the use by us and our third-party partners of cookies and data gathered from your use of our platforms. Lowering the voting age to 16 would help the legal age be more flexible with the education and cognitive abilities of their maturity. Electoral clarity does show a unit root for five other countries (three in the balanced data), but the effects of the lower voting age in the full dataset rise to match those in the balanced data if the countries with unit roots on either variable are all omitted. We use cookies and other technologies to customize your experience, perform analytics and deliver personalized advertising on our sites, apps and newsletters and across the Internet based on your interests. (2019). This content is currently not available in your region. Each qualifying adult receives just one vote. Share page. Cite as. €5 every 4 weeks or just €50 €20 for the first year, €7 every 4 weeks or just €70 €30 for the first year. Differenced coefficients show the short-term effect of the variable concerned (the effect that will decay at the rate established by the error correction parameter) while the corresponding lagged coefficient shows the long-term effect—an effect that contributes to changes in the equilibrium level from which future short-term deviations will occur. Statisticians express concerns regarding possibly spurious effects in ECMs for variables that trend over time (Kennedy, 2008, pp. Today, the debate of lowering the voting age in the country from 18 to 16 has surfaced. The United States has one of the lowest voter turnout rates among developed countries. See our Privacy Policy and Third Party Partners to learn more about the use of data and your rights. Evidently, the truncated dataset removes a composition artifact that masked this finding when time-series of different lengths were analyzed together.1, Turnout distinctions for Austria between citizens eligible to Vote at 16 and others, with increasing age, Error correction effects on aggregate-level volatility in South-American countries and Austria of changes in vote-eligibility. Read More. They should have a … (2007). Aggregate data for this chapter are taken from the IDEA voter turnout database, augmented by information from Wikipedia regarding the seat shares of the top two parties following each election. Lowering the voting age to 16 increases voter turnout and develops lifelong voting habits. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: Taking account of the political context. European elections and the European voter. Survey data for South-American countries are provided by the LatinoBarometer (LB) database for the same countries as listed above; the only countries in the database with seven or more elections since their 1970–1980 emergence from authoritarian rule and for which LB surveys were conducted in any election years. Why does the American National Election study overestimate voter turnout? Familiarity and inertia in the formation of governing coalitions in parliamentary democracies. Surveys for Brazil in 2002 and for Ecuador in 2009 are dropped because of anomalous numbers of respondents with ages that placed them as having been eligible to vote at 16 (86% and 1%, respectively). Interaction terms in logit and probit models. How to add sat essay after registration essay questions about early childhood education 4th grade writing essay. In R. Richardson & S. Mazey (Eds.). It could improve voter turnout rates. Franklin, M., & Hobolt, S. (2015). In … In 2017 a bill brought by Labour MP Jim McMahon failed to go to a vote after running out of debating time despite the backing of the other opposition parties. Since none of the problematic countries are ones in which the voting age was lowered to 16, but were simply included as controls, one could take the finding of unit roots in four of those control countries as disqualifying them for this role due to non-comparability with countries in which the voting age was lowered. The remaining numbers of surveys conducted in election years were as follows for each country: Argentina 10; Bolivia 4; Brazil 3; Chile 5; Colombia 4; Ecuador 5; Nicaragua 5; Paraguay 4; Peru 5; Uruguay 2; and Venezuela 5. On the one hand, lowering the voting age would provide votes to young adults still in school and living in their parental homes. But turnout shows a lot of variability, and its overall trend is not statistically significant in our data except for Colombia (in the full dataset) and Paraguay (in the balanced dataset). “The arguments for lowering the voting age to 18 don’t entirely translate to lowering it to 16,” Morley said, referring to the 1970 campaign. However, there are other countries in Europe where people as young as 16 are legal to vote. These articles are called Top Ten Reasons for Lowering the Voting Age, Don t Drop the Voting Age, and Maintain Our Voting Standards. That long-term effect is not significantly greater than the value found in Table 2.1, Model B, of 6.08% for the effect on turnout resulting from a switch from eligibility at 18 to eligibility at 16; but, more importantly, tells us that the effect in question is of a long-term nature. But if the countries with unit roots for any relevant variable are all omitted from the volatility analysis the results are actually strengthened, with short-term effects of age-16-eligibility rising to 8.1 in the unbalanced data and to 6.9 in the balanced data. Wagner, M., Johann, D., & Kritzinger, S. (2012). Habit and intention in everyday life: The multiple processes by which past behavior predicts future behavior. Two quasi-mechanical forces push in different directions when we consider consequences of lowering the voting age to 16. Buis, M. (2010). Van Elsas, E., Miltenburg, E., & van der Meer, T. (2016). We rely on readers like you to uphold a free press. You also agree to our Terms of Service. Ouellette, J., & Wood, W. (1998). Pressley ‒ a co-sponsor of a resolution to H.R. The remaining inputs all come in pairs, each differenced coefficient being paired with a lagged coefficient for the same input. Copy link.

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